Markteinblicke > Tägliche Marktanalyse

1 Juli 2025,07:03

Tägliche Marktanalyse

Yen Gains as Dollar Slips, Traders Eye Tokyo CPI

1 Juli 2025, 07:03

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Wichtigste Erkenntnisse:

*Yen strengthens as dollar slumps and risk sentiment turns cautious

*BoJ rate hike hopes hinge on upcoming Tokyo CPI and retail sales data

*U.S.-Japan auto tariff deadline looms, adding uncertainty to yen outlook

Market Summary:

The Japanese yen extended its gains on Thursday, with USD/JPY slipping toward 143.75—its lowest level in two weeks—as broad dollar weakness and renewed safe-haven demand supported the currency. While the tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran has dampened near-term geopolitical risk, investors remain cautious ahead of critical U.S. inflation data and upcoming trade deadlines, keeping yen demand resilient.

The yen’s strength has been amplified by a steep decline in the U.S. dollar, which is now testing three-year lows amid rising bets for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Political interference at the Fed—highlighted by President Trump’s suggestion of replacing Jerome Powell with a more dovish figure—has undermined central bank credibility and pushed yields lower, narrowing interest rate differentials in favor of the yen.

Market attention is also turning to Japan’s domestic indicators, including the upcoming Tokyo CPI and retail sales data. A firmer-than-expected inflation print could reinforce expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike at its July 31 meeting, though weak consumption trends and lingering global uncertainty may keep policymakers cautious. The risk of U.S. auto tariffs ahead of the July 9 deadline adds a further layer of complexity to the BoJ’s policy path.

In the near term, the yen’s trajectory will depend on how Tokyo CPI and Core PCE data influence market expectations for BoJ and Fed action. While a break below 144.30 could open the door to further gains toward 142.65, any signs of a U.S.-Japan trade resolution or a hawkish Fed pivot could trigger a reversal.

Technische Analyse

USDJPY, H4

The USD/JPY pair has entered a critical juncture, trading just above a key support level at 144.30 after a sharp retracement from its recent high near 148.10. This decline followed a robust upside move that had previously seen the pair break above a descending trendline – a move typically interpreted as a bullish breakout. However, the failure to hold above the 145.10 resistance casts a shadow over the sustainability of that breakout.

Momentum indicators are hinting at a loss of bullish conviction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 42, well below the midpoint of 50, indicating bearish momentum is gaining traction. Despite a brief recovery attempt, the RSI remains capped by its signal line and shows no immediate signs of bullish divergence – a warning sign for bulls hoping for a rebound.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) paints a similarly cautious picture. The MACD line remains below the signal line and in negative territory, with histogram bars struggling to turn green in a convincing manner. This configuration resembles the early stages of a bearish continuation, suggesting the recent pullback may have more room to run.

This divergence between the pair’s recent price action and its momentum indicators underscores a fragile market sentiment. While the pair holds just above short-term support, any decisive break below 144.30 could open the door toward deeper levels around 142.65 or even 141.70. Conversely, a sustained reclaim of 145.10 would be needed to reestablish bullish confidence.

Resistance levels: 145.10, 146.20

Support levels: 144.30, 142.65

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