Voraussichtliche Auswirkungen der Amtseinführung und der politischen Vorschläge von Präsident Donald Trump im Jahr 2025 auf den Markt

Executive Summary

President-Elect Donald Trump, following his victory in the November 2024 U.S. presidential election, is set to assume office on January 20, 2025. His proposed policies, including increased tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, higher tariffs on imported aluminum and steel, and a favorable stance toward cryptocurrencies, are expected to significantly influence financial markets. This report analyzes the potential impacts on equities, commodities (aluminum and steel), and cryptocurrencies, providing insights into expected price movements and associated risks prior to Trump’s inauguration.

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1. Introduction

Donald Trump’s return to the White House is anticipated to usher in a period of policy-driven market volatility. His campaign emphasized protectionist trade policies and a pro-cryptocurrency agenda, which could reshape global trade dynamics and domestic asset valuations. Key proposals include:

• Tariffs on Canada and Mexico: A proposed 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, aimed at addressing immigration and drug trafficking issues.
  
• Tariffs on Aluminum and Steel: Higher tariffs on imported aluminum and steel to bolster domestic production.
  
• Cryptocurrency Advocacy: Support for cryptocurrency innovation, potentially driving bullish sentiment in the crypto market.
  

This report assesses the pre-inauguration market sentiment and forecasts potential price movements across relevant asset classes upon Trump’s return to office.

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2. Policy Analysis and Market Implications

2.1 Tariffs on Canada and Mexico

Policy Overview: Trump has proposed a 25% tariff on most goods imported from Canada and Mexico, citing concerns over illegal immigration and fentanyl smuggling. These tariffs would disrupt the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which facilitates $1.3 trillion in annual trade among the three nations.

Market Implications:

Aktien: The tariffs could negatively impact U.S. companies reliant on North American supply chains, particularly in the automotive, manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors. For example, automakers like Ford and General Motors, which depend on cross-border parts, may face higher costs, potentially reducing profit margins and stock prices. Canadian and Mexican equities, such as those listed on the S&P/TSX Composite Index, may also decline due to retaliatory tariffs and reduced U.S. demand.

Rohstoffe: Energy prices could rise if Canada, a major U.S. oil supplier, imposes retaliatory measures on energy exports. Agricultural commodities, such as corn and soybeans, may face volatility if Mexico retaliates against U.S. exports.

Currencies: The Canadian dollar (CAD) and Mexican peso (MXN) are likely to weaken against the U.S. dollar (USD) due to trade uncertainties, boosting the USD’s relative strength.

Pre-Inauguration Sentiment: Markets are pricing in an 8-9% effective tariff rate on global trade, with the USD softening slightly as investors await clarity on implementation timelines.

2.2 Tariffs on Aluminum and Steel

Policy Overview: Trump plans to impose or increase tariffs on imported aluminum and steel, building on his first-term policies that set 10% tariffs on aluminum and 25% on steel. The new tariffs aim to protect U.S. producers by reducing reliance on foreign metals, particularly from Canada (the largest supplier) and China.

Market Implications:

• Rohstoffe: Domestic aluminum and steel prices are expected to rise as tariffs increase the cost of imported metals. U.S. producers like Alcoa and Nucor may benefit from higher prices and increased market share, but industries reliant on these metals (e.g., construction, automotive, and beverage packaging) will face higher input costs. Global aluminum and steel prices may diverge, with non-U.S. markets potentially seeing oversupply and lower prices.
  
• Aktien: U.S. steel and aluminum producers’ stocks are likely to rally, while downstream industries (e.g., automakers, appliance manufacturers) may experience margin compression, leading to potential stock price declines. Canadian metal exporters, such as Rio Tinto, could face challenges.
  
• Global Trade: Retaliatory tariffs from Canada and other suppliers could escalate trade tensions, impacting global commodity markets and supply chains.

Pre-Inauguration Sentiment: Investors are cautiously optimistic about U.S. metal producers, with stock prices of companies like Nucor showing modest gains in late 2024. However, concerns about global trade wars are tempering broader market enthusiasm.

2.3 Cryptocurrency Advocacy

Policy Overview: Trump has positioned himself as a cryptocurrency advocate, promising to foster innovation and reduce regulatory burdens on digital assets. His administration may prioritize policies that integrate cryptocurrencies into the financial system, potentially including tax incentives or clearer regulatory frameworks.

Market Implications:

• Kryptowährungen: Bitcoin (BTC) and other major cryptocurrencies are expected to experience significant bullish momentum. Posts on X suggest Bitcoin could reach $83,000 post-inauguration, driven by pro-crypto policies and investor optimism. Altcoins and blockchain-related projects may also benefit from a favorable regulatory environment.
  
• Aktien: Crypto-related stocks, such as Coinbase (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR), are likely to see price increases. Financial institutions exploring blockchain technology may also gain.
  
• Risks: Regulatory uncertainty persists, as Trump’s specific policies remain unclear. Additionally, macroeconomic factors, such as inflation driven by tariffs, could lead to volatility in crypto markets.

Pre-Inauguration Sentiment: The crypto market is experiencing a pre-inauguration rally, with Bitcoin up 10% since the November 2024 election. However, some traders on X express bearish concerns due to potential macroeconomic risks from tariffs.

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3. Asset Class Price Movement Forecasts

3.1 Equities

• Pre-Inauguration: U.S. equity markets, as measured by the S&P 500, are expected to remain volatile but stable, with investors cautiously optimistic about tax cuts and deregulation offsetting tariff concerns. Sectors like energy and defense may outperform, while consumer discretionary and industrials could lag.
  
• Post-Inauguration: Upon implementation of tariffs, the S&P 500 could enter correction territory (10% decline) if trade tensions escalate. A bear market (20% decline) is possible if retaliatory tariffs trigger a broader economic slowdown. Sectors tied to domestic manufacturing (e.g., steel, machinery) may outperform, while multinationals face headwinds.

Projected Range (Q1 2025):

• S&P 500: -5% to +2% (base case: -2%)
• Sector-Specific: Steel/Aluminum (+10%), Automotive (-8%), Tech (±3%)

3.2 Commodities

• Aluminum and Steel:
  • Pre-Inauguration: Domestic aluminum and steel prices are rising modestly in anticipation of tariffs, with futures contracts reflecting a 5-7% premium.
  • Post-Inauguration: U.S. aluminum and steel prices could increase by 15-20% due to reduced import competition. Global prices may soften if supply shifts to non-U.S. markets.
• Energy and Agriculture:
  • Pre-Inauguration: Oil and agricultural commodities are stable but sensitive to Canada/Mexico trade developments.
  • Post-Inauguration: Oil prices could rise 10% if Canada retaliates on energy exports. Agricultural prices may fluctuate based on Mexico’s response.
    

Projected Range (Q1 2025):

• Aluminum: +10% to +20% (U.S.)
• Steel: +12% to +25% (U.S.)
• Oil: ±5% (base case: +3%)

3.3 Cryptocurrencies

• Pre-Inauguration: Bitcoin and major altcoins are rallying, with BTC approaching $75,000 in December 2024, driven by Trump’s pro-crypto rhetoric.
• Post-Inauguration: A favorable policy environment could push Bitcoin to $80,000-$90,000 by Q1 2025. However, volatility is expected, with potential 10-15% corrections if macroeconomic conditions worsen (e.g., tariff-driven inflation).

Projected Range (Q1 2025):

• Bitcoin: $70,000-$90,000 (base case: $85,000)
• Ethereum: $3,500-$4,500 (base case: $4,000)

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4. Risks and Considerations

• Trade War Escalation: Retaliatory tariffs from Canada, Mexico, and other nations could lead to a global trade war, increasing inflation and reducing GDP growth. The IMF estimates U.S. growth could slow to 1.8% in 2025 under a high-tariff scenario.
• Inflationary Pressures: Tariffs are expected to raise consumer prices, with an estimated $1,300 annual cost per U.S. household. This could prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain or raise interest rates, impacting equities and bonds.
• Cryptocurrency Volatility: While Trump’s policies are bullish for crypto, regulatory delays or unexpected macroeconomic shocks (e.g., a U.S. recession) could trigger sharp corrections.
• Geopolitical Uncertainty: Trump’s tariff policies may strain alliances, particularly with Canada and Mexico, leading to broader market instability.

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5. Recommendations for Investors

1. Aktien:
   • Overweight: U.S. steel and aluminum producers (e.g., Nucor, Alcoa), energy, and defense.
   • Underweight: Automakers, consumer discretionary, and multinationals with heavy North American exposure.
   • Action: Diversify portfolios with defensive assets (e.g., utilities, healthcare) to mitigate trade war risks.
2. Rohstoffe:
   • Long: U.S. aluminum and steel futures to capitalize on tariff-driven price increases.
   • Monitor: Energy and agricultural commodities for retaliatory tariff impacts.
   • Action: Hedge exposure to global commodity markets with diversified ETFs.
3. Kryptowährungen:
   • Kaufen: Bitcoin and Ethereum on dips, targeting long-term gains from pro-crypto policies.
   • Diversify: Include crypto-related equities (e.g., Coinbase) to balance direct crypto exposure.
   • Action: Set stop-loss orders to manage volatility risks.
4. Portfolio Strategy:
   • Increase cash holdings to 10-15% to navigate near-term volatility.
   • Consider safe-haven assets (e.g., gold, Treasury bonds) as a hedge against trade war escalation.

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6. Conclusion

President-Elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025, is poised to introduce significant market disruptions driven by his protectionist trade policies and pro-cryptocurrency stance. While tariffs on Canada, Mexico, aluminum, and steel are expected to boost domestic producers and certain commodities, they pose risks to equities and global trade stability. The cryptocurrency market is likely to benefit from Trump’s advocacy, but volatility remains a concern. Investors should adopt a cautious, diversified approach, focusing on sectors and assets likely to benefit from policy shifts while hedging against broader economic risks.