Markets Gain on Positive U.S.-China Trade Developments; CPI in Focus

Wichtigste Erkenntnisse:

*Japan’s GDP beats expectations, fueling optimism over economic recover

*Rising inflation increases speculation of further BOJ tightening.

*BOJ may slow bond purchases as part of tightening strategy

Market Summary:

Global Risk Sentiment Improves on Constructive Trade Talks
Financial markets advanced as investors welcomed encouraging progress in the U.S.-China trade negotiations held in London. Both sides reaffirmed the framework established during their prior meeting in Geneva and agreed to move forward based on the consensus reached. Delegations will now return home to secure final approval before implementing the proposed measures, easing geopolitical tensions that had weighed on sentiment.

Wall Street Extends Gains, Led by Tech Sector
U.S. equities finished higher, with the Nasdaq leading the charge, gaining over 100 points in the latest session. Tech shares rebounded as concerns faded over China’s potential curbs on rare earth exports—an issue that had previously pressured the sector. Broader indices also rose in response to the improved trade outlook.

U.S. Dollar Stabilizes Ahead of CPI Data
The dollar found renewed support as optimism over trade talks helped bolster market sentiment. After a period of softness, the greenback regained ground, though gains remain tentative ahead of the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.

CPI Report Set to Be Market’s Next Major Catalyst
Investor focus now turns to inflation data due later this week. Economists are forecasting an uptick in CPI, which, if realized, could reinforce expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve. A stronger-than-expected print may support further dollar strength but could also temper risk appetite and weigh on equity markets, especially if rate hike bets are revived.

Technische Analyse 

DXY, H4: 

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has found near-term support following a sustained downtrend that saw it retreat from its May peak of 101.97 to a recent low of 98.35. After this sharp decline, the index has entered a consolidation phase, trading in a sideways pattern just below a critical resistance zone near the 99.35 level—a level that has capped gains on three separate occasions.

A decisive breakout above the 99.35 threshold would mark a key bullish signal, potentially confirming a trend reversal and opening the door for further upside.

Momentum indicators are beginning to align with this view. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from near-oversold territory to hover around the midline, suggesting a shift from bearish to neutral sentiment. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is on the verge of crossing above the zero line, indicating that downside momentum has faded and bullish momentum may be emerging.

Overall, while the index remains technically constrained below resistance, early signs of a momentum shift suggest that a breakout could trigger renewed strength in the dollar. Traders should closely monitor price action around the 99.35 level for confirmation of directional bias.

Resistance levels: 99.40, 100.55

Support levels: 98.10, 96.55

Nasdaq, H4

The Nasdaq Composite advanced by 123.75 points, or 0.63%, in the latest session—marking its second consecutive day of gains following a breakout from a prolonged sideways consolidation range. The breakout has reinforced a bullish technical bias, with the index now approaching its all-time high of 22,222.60.

A decisive move above this key resistance level would serve as a strong confirmation of sustained bullish momentum, potentially triggering further upside as sentiment continues to improve.

Technical indicators support this optimistic outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains well above the 50 threshold and is nearing overbought territory, reflecting strong buying interest. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has formed a golden cross above the zero line—typically seen as a robust bullish signal—further underscoring the upward trend.

With bullish momentum clearly intact, market participants will be closely watching whether the Nasdaq can break through its record high and enter a new phase of price discovery.

Resistance levels: 22,150.00, 23600.00

Support levels: 21,000.00, 20,100.00