Safe Havens Struggle on Trade Breakthrough

 Wichtigste Erkenntnisse:

*Gold and dollar retreat as global risk appetite surges: Improved U.S.-China ties and ceasefire hopes spark flows into risk assets, pressuring safe havens.

*Hotter Core PCE complicates Fed rate path: Inflation beats forecast at 2.7% YoY, reinforcing higher-for-longer narrative but failing to lift USD.

*Fiscal worries overshadow Fed tightening outlook: Mounting U.S. deficit concerns weigh on dollar sentiment despite sticky inflation data.

Market Summary:

The U.S. dollar weakened further while gold extended its slide as markets responded to improving geopolitical dynamics and stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data. A breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks and signs of de-escalation between Israel and Iran have lifted risk sentiment globally, leading investors to rotate out of traditional safe havens and into risk-sensitive assets.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) declined despite hotter-than-expected core PCE data, which rose 2.7% year-over-year in May, slightly above forecasts of 2.6%. The stronger inflation print reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain elevated rates for longer. However, the dollar failed to capitalize, with markets instead focusing on growing fiscal concerns. A new Senate spending proposal is projected to widen the U.S. deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next decade, intensifying worries over long-term debt sustainability. As the July 9 U.S. tariff deadline approaches, uncertainty around fiscal negotiations and external obligations continues to weigh on the greenback’s medium-term outlook.

Gold prices fell sharply as safe-haven demand faded in the face of improving global diplomacy. The partial thaw in U.S.-China relations and potential Middle East ceasefire have undercut geopolitical risk premiums. At the same time, rising U.S. inflation data has tempered expectations for near-term rate cuts, placing pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. With yields still elevated and global risk appetite improving, the appeal of bullion has diminished for now.

Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor incoming inflation prints and fiscal headlines out of Washington. While further escalation in trade or geopolitical tensions could briefly support the dollar and gold, the broader trend appears tilted toward renewed risk-taking—leaving both assets vulnerable to near-term downside pressure.

Technische Analyse 

Dollar_Index, H4: 

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has continued to weaken, recently slipping and consolidating below the 97.30 support zone. The breakdown follows the index’s sharp rejection from the 99.25 area earlier this month, which marked the top of a rising channel structure. The subsequent bearish reversal has been decisive, with DXY dropping nearly 250 points in under two weeks—signaling a clear shift in market sentiment.

Technically, the momentum picture remains firmly bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to hover near oversold levels around 34, struggling to break above the 50 threshold—highlighting persistent downward pressure.The MACD paints a similar story. While the histogram is showing early signs of stabilization, the MACD line continues to lag beneath the signal line, indicating that bearish momentum is still in play. 

With broader macro risks—from U.S. fiscal strains to shifting Fed rate expectations—compounding technical weakness, the dollar index appears vulnerable to further downside. Unless upcoming inflation or labor data offer a catalyst for reversal, the technical setup favors continued bearish momentum in the near term.

Resistance Levels: 97.80, 98.60
Support Levels: 97.00, 96.30

Gold, H4: 

Gold has extended its downward trajectory, recently breaching the $3,300 psychological support level and now trading near $3,275—marking a significant pullback from the June highs. The move follows a period of prolonged weakness driven by improving global risk appetite, strong U.S. data, and fading demand for safe-haven assets. The price action reflects sustained bearish pressure, with gold now testing the lower end of its June trading range.

Technical indicators reinforce the bearish tilt. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near oversold territory at 31, suggesting that while gold is nearing short-term exhaustion, momentum remains weak. Importantly, the RSI has failed to rebound meaningfully despite recent price consolidation, signaling a lack of bullish conviction.Meanwhile, the MACD remains firmly in bearish alignment, with the MACD line well below the signal line and a deepening negative histogram. Although momentum is not accelerating aggressively, the absence of any bullish crossover suggests continued downside pressure.

For now, the divergence between weak momentum and oversold signals suggests that while a technical rebound is possible, the broader bias remains tilted to the downside—especially if macro tailwinds for risk assets persist.

Resistance Levels: 3300.00, 3344.00
Support Levels: 3264.00, 3212.00