Furcht vor Handelskrieg belastet globale Märkte

Marktübersicht

Global risk appetite remained weak as investors braced for Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs,” set to be unveiled at a press conference titled “Make America Wealthy Again” on Wednesday. The move has heightened fears of a widening trade war, with major economies like China, Canada, and the EU preparing retaliatory actions. Volatility surged across asset classes as markets reacted to escalating tensions.

Gold hovered near record highs as investors sought safety amid economic uncertainty. While demand for safe-haven assets remained strong, traders adopted a cautious stance ahead of further tariff details. Meanwhile, the US dollar struggled for direction, tilting bearish on concerns that prolonged trade disputes could slow US economic growth.

US equities faced continued pressure despite a brief rebound from bargain hunting. Risk appetite remained subdued, with investors closely monitoring Trump’s tariff announcement for potential market shifts, particularly in trade-sensitive sectors.

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Aktuelle Wetten auf eine Zinserhöhung 7th May Fed interest rate decision: 

Quelle: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (81.5%) VS -25 bps (18.5%)

Marktübersicht

Wirtschaftskalender

(MT4 Systemzeit)

Quelle: MQL5 

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Marktbewegungen

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

The US dollar index fluctuated within a narrow range as investors struggled to find clear direction ahead of Trump’s trade tariff announcement at 4 PM local time (20:00 GMT). Longer-term sentiment on the greenback leaned bearish as fears of trade war escalations weighed on US economic growth prospects. The White House’s confirmation of sweeping import taxes has fueled uncertainty, with major economies such as China, Canada, and the EU preparing potential retaliatory actions.

The Dollar Index is trading flat while currently nearby the resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 43, suggesting the index might extend its gains since the RSI rebounded from oversold territory. 

Resistance level: 104.70, 106.10

Support level: 103.20, 101.70

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XAU/USD, H4

Gold prices surged to a record high, reflecting strong safe-haven demand amid growing uncertainty over global trade policies. Economists have warned that Trump’s aggressive stance could trigger a severe trade war, increasing the risk of retaliatory measures from key trading partners. Investors, seeking protection from market instability, have shifted their portfolios toward gold, pushing prices higher. However, the market remains in wait-and-see mode, with traders closely monitoring Trump’s tariff announcement for further clarity on potential economic fallout.

Gold prices are trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 55, suggesting the commodity might extend its gains after breakout since the RSI stays above the midline. 

Resistance level:  3135.00, 3170.00

Support level: 3110.00, 3085.00

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GBP/USD，H4

The British pound remains under pressure amid a combination of domestic and external headwinds. The UK’s manufacturing PMI, though slightly improved to 44.9, continues to signal contraction, reinforcing concerns about economic weakness. Markets are pricing in a 20 bps BoE rate cut in May, though hawkish commentary on wage inflation could offer temporary relief. The currency faces additional risks from Trump’s upcoming April 2 tariff decision, which may trigger risk-off flows and USD strength. 

GBP/USD is currently consolidating within a narrow range between 1.2875 and 1.2950 having broken below a key ascending trendline that had supported its rally since January, signaling a potential shift in momentum. The RSI is at 49, indicating neutral territory but could confirm downward momentum if it slips below 45, while the MACD’s position below zero reinforces the selling pressure.

Resistance level:  1.2950,1.3000

Support level: 1.2875, 1.2810

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EUR/USD , H4

The euro edged lower as the EU emerged as a key target of the new tariffs. European officials warned of strong retaliatory measures, stating that the bloc “holds a lot of cards” in its trade negotiations with the US. With Trump set to impose new import taxes during his 4 PM (20:00 GMT) press conference, concerns over escalating trade tensions continue to shape market sentiment, keeping investors on high alert for potential retaliatory measures that could further disrupt global trade flows.

EUR/USD is trading lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 44, suggesting the pair might extend its losses since the RSI stays below the midline. 

Resistance level: 1.0840, 1.0955

Support level: 1.0735, 1.0615

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AUD/USD, H4

AUD/USD rebounded as traders assess softer US labor data against broader risk-off sentiment, investors sell off USD. The latest JOLTS job openings fell to 7.568M, hinting at labor market cooling, but broader concerns over China’s sluggish demand and US trade policy uncertainty continue to weigh on the risk-sensitive Aussie. Traders are also bracing for Trump’s April 2 tariff decision, where aggressive trade measures could spark a global risk-off move, further pressuring the currency.

The AUD/USD pair is recovering from recent lows,remains vulnerable near 0.6300 after recent declines.Despite the RSI is at 57 indicating improving bullish momentum while MACD is turning positive, showing a bullish crossover, which suggests that further upside is possible. However, broader headwinds persist—including China’s economic slowdown, looming US tariff decisions, and shifting Fed rate expectations.

Resistance level:0.6270, 0.6345

Unterstützungsniveau: 0,6205, 0,6130

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Crude Oil, H4: 

Oil prices remained range-bound in Asian trade, as traders exercised caution ahead of Trump’s announcement. Market participants also await an upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where the cartel may consider increasing production to counteract supply concerns. Crude prices have seen modest gains in recent sessions after Trump threatened Russia with new oil sanctions and hinted at military action against Iran over its nuclear program. While geopolitical risks support oil prices, concerns about slowing global growth due to trade tensions are capping further upside momentum.

Oil prices are trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 60, suggesting the commodity might extend its gains since the RSI stays above the midline. 

Resistance level: 71.75, 75.60

Support level: 66.80, 63.55

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Nasdaq, H4: 

US equities remained under pressure, despite a brief rebound driven by bargain buying and technical corrections. Broader market sentiment leaned bearish, as diminished risk appetite kept investors wary of high-risk assets. Traders are now focusing on sectors most exposed to global trade tensions, particularly those with significant reliance on international markets. The upcoming tariff announcement remains the key event, with investors bracing for potential market shifts following the press conference.

Nasdaq is trading flat while currently testing the support level. MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 40, suggesting the index might extend its losses after breakout since the RSI stays below the midline. 

Resistance level: 20445.00, 21451.75

Support level: 19160.00, 18405.00

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