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Published: 15 November 2024,05:48
In October, annual inflation in the Eurozone rose, with the preliminary Eurozone CPI reading climbing to 2% from 1.7% in September, according to Eurostat. The main contributors to this increase were higher prices in services, food, alcohol, and tobacco. The European Central Bank stated that prices are “expected to keep rising in the coming months before returning to target next year.” Consequently, the finalized inflation figure is anticipated to reflect ongoing resilience in the Eurozone economy.
The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2024 showed a year-over-year rise of 1.7%, below the forecast of 1.9% and down from 2.2% in the previous month. This marked the lowest reading since April 2021, mainly due to a decrease in airfares and petrol prices, according to the Office for National Statistics. Following the release, investors now see a 90% probability of two quarter-point rate cuts by the Bank of England by year-end, up from the previous probability of around 80%. Inflation is expected to remain subdued in the coming months.
Germany’s GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2024, recovering from a minor contraction of -0.1% in Q2 and steering clear of a technical recession. This unexpected outcome surprised analysts, who had predicted another slight decline. The growth was driven by modest increases in domestic consumption and a stabilization in exports, despite challenges such as weak industrial orders, high energy costs, and rising raw material prices. Nevertheless, the economic outlook remains cautious, and the upcoming release is likely to reflect subdued growth as Germany’s economy continues to adjust to these persistent challenges.
The latest S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for October 2024 was revised to 48.5, up from 47.3 in September, but it remains below the 50-mark, signaling continued contraction in the manufacturing sector. This represents the fourth consecutive month of decline. Contributing factors include ongoing economic uncertainty, particularly with the U.S. presidential elections approaching, and disruptions from hurricanes affecting supply chains. On a more positive note, inflationary pressures eased, with input costs rising at the slowest pace in almost a year. However, the upcoming release is expected to stay in contraction territory below 50, likely around current levels, as political uncertainty and global demand challenges may continue to hinder recovery.
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