Euro Slips as U.S. Inflation Surprises to the Upside

Key Takeaways:

*The euro remains vulnerable as hotter U.S. inflation data lifts the dollar and delays Fed rate cut expectations.

*Rising trade tensions with China and a stalled EU-China dialogue continue to undermine the eurozone’s growth prospects.

*ECB officials remain cautious amid sticky core inflation and geopolitical risks, offering little policy support for the euro.

Market Summary:

The euro extended losses against the U.S. dollar as a stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation print and rising Treasury yields bolstered demand for the greenback. June CPI rose 2.7% YoY, surpassing estimates and forcing markets to scale back expectations for a near-term Fed rate cut. The renewed dollar strength, combined with ongoing eurozone trade and policy headwinds, has left EUR/USD under pressure near recent lows.

While Eurozone industrial production surprised to the upside in May with a 3.7% YoY gain, the broader growth narrative remains fragile. The EU’s widening €400 billion trade deficit with China continues to expose structural imbalances, amplified by Beijing’s subsidies and limited market access. A lack of progress at the latest EU-China summit has further heightened trade tensions, particularly around electric vehicle overcapacity.

On the monetary front, the European Central Bank remains reluctant to ease further despite slowing headline inflation. Sticky core inflation near 3% and rising tariff-related uncertainty have prompted policymakers like Bundesbank’s Joachim Nagel to adopt a cautious tone. With global inflation dynamics shifting, the ECB appears trapped in a wait-and-see posture, lacking the conviction to stimulate a still-stagnant economy.

Meanwhile, Germany’s recent fiscal compromise with the EU Commission provides short-term policy flexibility, but longer-term austerity commitments may ultimately constrain growth across the bloc. In contrast, the U.S. is benefiting from relative macro strength and aggressive trade policy, helping lift the dollar further as global capital rotates away from the euro.

Unless incoming data shifts decisively or the ECB pivots unexpectedly, the euro remains at risk of further downside. The twin pressures of Fed repricing and persistent EU-China friction may keep EUR/USD biased lower through the summer.

Technical Analysis 

EURUSD, H4: 

EUR/USD remains under pressure, trading just above the 1.1600 threshold after a steep decline from the 1.1700 region. Price is now consolidating near a key horizontal support level, with the recent bearish leg accelerating as sellers broke below both the 50- and 100-period moving averages. The failed defense of the 1.1662 pivot has shifted the short-term structure firmly in favor of the bears.

Despite the minor pause in selling, upside attempts appear technically fragile. The pair remains below the 20- and 50-SMAs, while previous support at 1.1690 now flips to resistance. A daily close below 1.1590 would likely confirm bearish continuation, exposing further downside toward 1.1470 in extension.

Momentum indicators reflect lingering bearish bias. The RSI sits at 35 which is still within bearish territory and shows no clear bullish divergence, while the MACD remains flat and subdued, with the histogram hovering near the zero line, indicating a lack of upside momentum.

Until EUR/USD reclaims 1.1660 with volume-backed conviction, rallies may remain corrective in nature. Traders will be watching closely for either a breakdown below 1.1590 or a failed retest of the 1.1660 zone to gauge the next directional impulse.

Resistance levels: 1.1660, 1.1690

Support levels: 1.1590, 1.1470