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  • Market Insights  >  Daily Market Analysis

5 September 2023,09:06

Daily Market Analysis

Strong NFP Bolsters Dollar’s Strength

5 September 2023, 09:06

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Nonfarm Payroll beat expectations, lifting the dollar. China reduced property down payments, boosting its equity markets.

The latest Nonfarm Payroll report, released last Friday, exceeded market expectations with 187k jobs added, significantly higher than the previous 157k. This robust job data boosted the dollar by over 0.6%, while equity markets took some time to digest the information and traded sideways. In China, equity markets saw a morning surge due to the Chinese government’s move to reduce the required down payment to 20%, aimed at stimulating the struggling property sector and increasing consumer spending. Meanwhile, oil prices reached their highest levels since November of the previous year, supported by positive economic data from China and the United States, as well as ongoing supply cuts from major oil-producing nations.


Current rate hike bets on 20th September Fed interest rate decision

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (93.0%) VS 25 bps (7.0%)  


Market Overview

market overview price chart 4 september 2023

Economic Calendar

economic calendar 4 september 2023

Market Movements

dollar index dxy price chart 4 september 2023

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

In the United States, August’s Nonfarm Payrolls report delivered a positive surprise with an impressive gain of 187,000 jobs, surpassing market expectations of 170,000. However, the unemployment rate surged to 3.80%, marking its highest level since February 2022, casting shadows of uncertainty over the nation’s economic trajectory. Despite mixed economic data, the US dollar continued its ascent. Notably, the ISM Manufacturing PMI showed improvement, rising from 46.4 to 47.6, surpassing the market consensus of 47.0. The currency market remained in focus, while the gold market consolidated as investors sought clearer market catalysts.

The dollar gained nearly 0.5% yesterday and is strongly supported at above 103 trajectory, providing a bullish bias signal for the dollar. The MACD has crossed below while the RSI rebounded to support the view of a bullish bias for the dollar. 

Resistance level: 104.40, 105.15

Support level: 103.90, 103.40

xau/aud gold price chart 4 september 2023

XAU/USD, H4

Amidst mixed U.S. employment data, gold prices remain ensnared within a pivotal range, reflecting the prevailing economic uncertainty. August’s Nonfarm Payrolls report surprisingly boasted a substantial increase of 187,000 jobs, surpassing market expectations of 170,000. However, the accompanying surge in the unemployment rate to 3.80%, a stark rise from July and the highest level since February 2022, has muddied the economic outlook. These contrasting figures have left investors in search of clarity, reaffirming gold’s role as a haven asset in times of uncertainty.

Gold prices are trading flat while currently hovering at a crucial resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 58, suggesting the commodity might be trading lower since the RSI retreated sharply from overbought territory. 

Resistance level: 1950.00, 1970.00

Support level: 1920.00, 1900.00

eur/usd price chart 4 september 2023

EUR/USD,H4

The Euro faced losses due to mixed U.S. economic data. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed a stronger-than-expected increase of 187k jobs, up from the previous 157k, but the unemployment rate also rose from 3.5% to 3.8%. This robust performance in the U.S. labour market bolstered the dollar against other major currencies. Additionally, the Euro’s performance was hindered by unimpressive economic data and market expectations of a future moderate rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB). These factors contributed to the Euro’s decline relative to the dollar.

The EUR/USD has declined to its crucial support level near 1.0780 while the RSI and MACD are both moving downward, suggesting the pair is trading in bearish momentum. 

Resistance level: 1.0850, 1.0920

Support level: 1.0760, 1.0700

aud/usd price chart 4 september 2023

AUD/USD,H4

The Australian dollar showed resilience against the strengthening U.S. dollar, supported by positive economic data released last Friday. Despite the robust Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) reading, which boosted the dollar, the Aussie dollar held its ground, possibly due to China’s ongoing economic stimulus efforts. Investor attention is now focused on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) upcoming interest rate decision scheduled for tomorrow. This event will be closely monitored to assess the Australian dollar’s strength moving forward.

The pair traded relatively sideways in the past week while the RSI and the MACD moved sideways, giving neutral signals for the pair. 

Resistance level: 0.6500, 0.6580

Support level: 0.6440, 0.6380

USD/JPY price chart 4 september 2023

USD/JPY,H4

The Japanese yen witnessed a sharp decline as Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki’s remarks ignited concerns about potential currency intervention. Suzuki emphasised the importance of market-driven exchange rates but stopped short of committing to any immediate action, catching market participants off guard, and triggering a substantial selloff.

USD/JPY is trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 54, suggesting the pair might extend its gains after breakout. 

Resistance level: 146.40, 147.20

Support level:145.60, 144.00

dow jones price chart 4 september 2023

Dow Jones , H1

The Dow Jones index experienced a slight decline as the U.S. job data delivered mixed results on Friday. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) exceeded expectations, rising to 187k, but the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% to 3.8%. This data left the U.S. equity market trading relatively sideways as it assessed the implications for the Federal Reserve’s future actions. Investor attention is now focused on the Beige Book, scheduled for release on Thursday, to gauge the health of the U.S. economy and gain insights into potential future market movements.

Despite a technical retracement, the index has found support at above 34700. The RSI has declined to near the 50-level while the MACD has crossed the above suggests the bullish momentum has eased. 

Resistance level: 35640.00, 36400.00

Support level: 34500.00, 33600.00

HK50 price chart 4 september 2023

HK50, H4

The Chinese government launched another round of policies to shore up economic growth, supporting the Hang Seng Index. China unveiled a further easing of its mortgage policies, while said it will extend the personal income tax rebates for people who buy new homes within one year after selling old homes till the end of 2025.  

HK50 is trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, RSI is at 54, suggesting the index might extend its gains after breakout since the RSI stays above the midline. 

Resistance level: 18965.00, 19555.00

Support level: 18305.00, 17550.00

crude oil price chart 4 september 2023

CL OIL, H4

Oil markets experienced a notable rally, reaching their highest levels in over seven months. Concerns regarding tightening supply dynamics took centre stage. Saudi Arabia’s expected extension of a voluntary 1 million barrel per day oil production cut into October added to the bullish sentiment, aligning with broader OPEC supply curbs.

Oil prices are trading higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 80, suggesting the commodity might enter overbought territory. 

Resistance level: 87.25, 93.10

Support level: 83.05, 79.15

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