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In Sunday trading on FTX, a cryptocurrency version of Tesla’s shares recently…
In Sunday trading on FTX, a cryptocurrency version of Tesla’s shares recently fetched $1,138.95, 6.8% lower than Friday’s close for the real stock
Stocks surged at the end of the week, with major indices rallying to fresh highs as investors reacted positively to the October jobs reports, which showed a better-than-expected pickup in payroll growth and further improvement in the unemployment rate. The S&P 500 rose about 2% for the week to mark a fifth consecutive weekly gain — its longest winning streak since August 2020. The Nasdaq also jumped to a record high, boosted by tech shares, while the Dow reached a record close as well.
Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s Twitter followers have indicated that he should sell 10% of his stake in electric car maker Tesla. A majority of Musk’s 3.5 million Twitter followers have backed the move in a poll that Musk launched Saturday. The poll floated the idea of Musk selling his shares in Tesla, which is valued at about $21 billion based on 170.5 million Tesla shares he holds. About 58% of respondents backed the idea of the sale.
After the poll closed, Musk tweeted: “I was prepared to accept either outcome.”
In Sunday trading on FTX, a cryptocurrency version of Tesla’s shares recently fetched $1,138.95, 6.8% lower than Friday’s close for the real stock, suggesting Musk’s tweeting may cause the shares to fall on Monday.
While large sales by insiders are often seen as a negative signal, a sale of this magnitude won’t alter Tesla’s story in a meaningful way, said Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities as demand remains high for Tesla shares among both institutional and retail investors. The unorthodox step of getting buy-in from fans and investors via a poll may also ease any concerns.
Main Pairs Movement
The Greenback was mixed against its G10 peers as the trading week gets underway in Sydney. The dollar’s strength shattered after the upbeat job reports, as the risk-on mood has risen, weighing on the save-heaven dollar.
EUR/USD was up 0.12% to 1.1568 after touching a year-to-date low of 1.1514 on Friday. Despite an abundance of Covid-19 shots, countries from Germany to Greece have reported record infections in recent days. GBP/USD declined a modest 0.03% to 1.3494 later in Thursday’s massive plummet. The impact of the Bank of England’s dovish statement was so huge that the pound had yet to recover from the loss.
USD/CAD held at familiar 1.2452 and closed last week up 0.6% for its third straight weekly gain. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said that the central bank is “in control” of inflation. The November 17 CPI data will provide further insight into the bank’s statement. USD/JPY posted a 0.31% loss on Friday, plunging after the US NFP release and closing at 113.39.
Commodities ended the day in the green. Gold jumped nearly 1.5% to $1816.17 a troy ounce while crude oil posted gains as well. The WTI was last seen at $81.34, up 2.5% on Friday, and Brent was up 1.73% to $82.32.
GBPUSD (Daily Chart)
GBP/USD plummeted over 1.3% on Thursday after the Bank of England (BoE) voted to continue its bond-purchase program and to keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.1%. Cable extended further south on Friday and a recovery seems difficult in the short term. The pair is trading at 1.3440 at the moment of writing, and has declined 1.8% from the open price of the week.
On the technical front, after the failing attempts to breach the 20-day moving average (DMA) on Wednesday, the unstoppable downward traction has dragged Cable over the lower bound of the Bollinger Bands. Moreover, the longer-term DMAs shifted to the downside on Friday. The diving 50 DMA is endorsing the growing downtrend and could boost it with a bearish crossover of the 200 DMA. The MACD and RSI also appear bearish, and despite the huge selling pressure, the RSI indicator has not reached the oversold territory yet, suggesting the downfall may proceed.
Resistance: 1.3500, 1.3567, 1.3720
Support: 1.3410, 1.3135
AUDUSD (Daily Chart)
AUD/USD remains on the backfoot below 0.7400 and is looking to extend Thursday’s sell-off amid the recent strength in the US dollar against its major rivals. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) dovish stance on the monetary policies also weighed on the Aussie, in addition to the recent plummet in commodity prices making the commodity-linked AUD less attractive.
On the other hand, the high Treasury yield levels and fresh concerns about the Chinese property sector continue to keep the greenback buoyant. The dollar index continues to hover around the highest levels throughout the year, which was last seen at 94.50.
Looking at AUD/USD’s daily chart, the price action on Friday is below all the moving averages, along with the bearish MACD histogram and RSI indicator, showing the downward traction is in charge and will prevail for some time.
Resistance: 0.7427, 0.7478, 0.7556
Support: 0.7300, 0.7220, 0.7106
USDJPY (Daily Chart)
USD/JPY seesawed around the familiar levels during the day, consolidating around a narrow range between 113.50 to 114.05. The pair witnessed some demand in the European session, posting a daily high at 114.03. However, after the upbeat NFP data was released, the pair plummeted around 50 pips and touched a daily low at around 113.50.
Looking at USDJPY’s daily chart, we can see the price action was simply lingering around the 76.4% to 100% Fibonacci interval since it jumped into this territory in mid-October. The pair seemed to lack the momentum to either penetrate the 76.4% support or refresh the yearly high. The technical indicators were also hovering around the average levels in this period, failing to provide insights for further directions. To the upside, the instant resistance will appear at 114.45, where the multiple October highs sit, followed by the yearly high of 114.70. On the flip side, the Fibonacci levels await, along with the daily moving averages (DMAs), especially the 200 DMA. A breach over that line may open a long-term downtrend.
Resistance: 114.45, 114.70
Support: 113.38, 112.57, 111.91
The Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy meeting and subsequent decision to…
The Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy meeting and subsequent decision to keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.1%, has disappointed the market
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices once again set a record closing. This marked the close of six records of the two indexes in the past six trading days. The S&P 500 index rose 0.42% to close at 4680 points, while the Nasdaq 100 index rose 1.25% to close at 16346. The Dow Jones Index fell slightly by 0.1%, but it was still above the 36000 level. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as the fear indicator on Wall Street, stabilised above 15.00, not far from the post-pandemic low of around 14.00 set in June.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 3.5% with strong gains from Qualcomm, which rose strongly by 12.7%, causing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index to soar 3.5%. Despite severe disruptions in the global supply chain, its business is still booming. Moreover, technology stocks benefited from the sharp drop in U.S. Treasury yields, whose decline was mainly catalysed by the dovish attitude of the Bank of England. This triggered a historic decline in UK yields, which has spread to the international markets.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla and Hertz are now negotiating how quickly the car rental company can receive deliveries for a large order for 100,000 Tesla vehicles. This has caused the automaker’s shares to rise slightly by 16.05 US dollars, or 1.3%, to $1,229.91.
Meanwhile, after British health regulators approved the Covid-19 drug developed jointly by Ridgeback Biotherapeutics and Merck, the latter’s stock price rose 1.86 US dollars, or 2.1%, to 90.54 US dollars. After lowering its forecast for the delivery of the Covid-19 vaccine for the full year of 2021, Moderna’s stock price plummeted by US$61.90, or 18%, to US$284.02, citing the longer delivery cycle of international transportation.
Main Pairs Movement
On Thursday, the US dollar was the overall winner, regaining its gains and setting new weekly highs against high-yield opponents. On the other hand, safe-haven assets rose slightly against the U.S. dollar but did not break through any key levels.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy meeting and subsequent decision to keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.1%, has disappointed the market, which had expected a rise in interest rates, further boosting demand for the dollar. The GBP/USD exchange rate plummeted to 1.3470 and closed around 1.3500.
After the announcement of the PMI on Thursday, the data was lower than expected and could not provide any momentum for the euro against the dollar. Therefore, EUR/USD faced pressure near 1.1615 for the third consecutive day, causing bulls to give up, which tested the previous support at 1.1527.
GBPUSD (4- Hour Chart)
GBP/USD tumbled on Thursday amid a dovish Bank of England, dropping to the lowest level since October 1. The pair was trading lower in the early Asian session, then declined sharply right after the BoE announcement. GBP/USD is currently sitting just above 1.350, hoping to rebound back from today’s slide. The Bank of England released their latest rate decision and monetary policy statement today. It has decided to keep UK’s interest rate unchanged at 0.10%. The dovish decision not to hike rates surprised the market and dampened investors’ expectations of the coming BoE rate hike cycle. On top of that, the stronger US dollar also weighed on the cable, as the DXY index preserved its upside momentum and climbed further above 94.00 level.
From a technical standpoint, the RSI indicator is at 25 as of writing, suggesting that the pair is in the oversold zone, and investors should be aware of a trend reversal. The MACD indicator showed a death cross on the histogram, which means the pair is likely to experience downward momentum. If we take a look at the Bollinger Bands, the price action is moving out of the bands, so a strong trend continuation can be expected. In conclusion, we think that the market will be bearish as the pair is now heading to test the 1.3412 support.
Resistance: 1.3698, 1.3751, 1.3535
USDJPY (4- Hour Chart)
After rising above 114.20 level on Thursday, USD/JPY failed to preserve its bullish momentum and started to see fresh selling during the European session. After the American session began, the pair declined further and touched a daily low under 113.55. USD/JPY was last seen trading at 113.69, posting a 0.26% loss for the day. Despite the renewed US dollar strength, USD/JPY are still being dragged down by the top performer, the Japanese yen. The lower US 10-year yields also weighed on the pair. Market focus has now shifted to the Nonfarm Payrolls report, as strong results may send the USD/JPY pair higher.
From a technical standpoint, the RSI indicator is at 42 as of writing, suggesting tepid bear movement ahead. As for the MACD indicator, a death cross just formed on the histogram, therefore bearish momentum is likely to persist. Looking at the Bollinger Bands, the price has dropped below the moving average and is now moving toward the lower band, which indicates a bear market. In conclusion, we think that the market will be bearish as long as the 114.44 resistance line holds. If the pair drops below the 113.26 support, some additional near-term losses can be expected.
Resistance: 114.44, 114.70
Support: 113.26, 111.53, 110.82
USDCAD (4- Hour Chart)
USD/CAD advanced on Thursday, extending its recovery for the second day as WTI oil pulls back from a daily top around 83.50. Oil prices have dropped sharply due to an output hike plan from OPEC+, which has agreed to increase output by 400K barrels per day/month in December. The bearish momentum witnessed in oil continues weighing on the commodity-linked Canadian dollar. On top of that, a stronger US dollar across the board also lifted the pair further.
On the technical side of things, the RSI indicator is at 70, suggesting that the pair is in the overbought zone, and investors should be aware of a trend reversal. The MACD is now sitting above the signal line, which indicates a bull market. As for the Bollinger Bands, the price is moving out of the bands so a strong trend continuation can be expected. In conclusion, we think that the market will be bullish as the pair is trying to test the 1.2499 resistance.
Resistance: 1.2499, 1.2648, 1.2775
Support: 1.2378, 1.2288
The U.S. central bank kept interest rates unchanged and announced a monthly…
The U.S. central bank kept interest rates unchanged and announced a monthly reduction of $15 billion in asset purchases
While the Fed currently buys $120 billion in bonds every month to inject liquidity into the financial system, it is expected to scale back its bond-purchasing programme starting this month and develop a plan to stop buying bonds in the middle of the next calendar year.
In view of the strong performance announced by companies, all three benchmark US indexes closed at historical highs. The Dow Jones Index rose 0.39%, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.37%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.34%. 83% of S&P 500 companies that have announced results have exceeded analysts’ continued optimistic earnings expectations.
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. surged in the late trading hours after announcing accelerated stock repurchase and the launch of a new digital marketplace for third-party producer goods. Lyft Inc. reported third-quarter revenue to be 73% higher than last year, causing its stock to go up 8%. Avis Budget Group Inc. has soared amid a retail frenzy as the car rental company said it will play an important role in the adoption of electric vehicles in the United States. Tesla’s stock price fell by 0.72% because Elon Musk expressed doubts about Hertz Global Holdings’ plan to purchase 100,000 electric vehicles and downplayed the potential of the deal.
Main Pairs Movement
After the Federal Reserve announced its monetary policy, the U.S. dollar fell slightly against most of its major competitors at the close of trading on Wednesday. As expected, the U.S. central bank kept interest rates unchanged and announced a monthly reduction of $15 billion in asset purchases. The Federal Reserve will begin to reduce the size of U.S. Treasury bond purchases by US$10 billion and reduce mortgage-backed securities by US$5 billion later this month. In addition, policymakers still believe that inflation will be “temporary,” although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell pointed out that supply chain problems might continue into next year, which means that inflation will also remain high.
EUR/USD maintains its continuation pattern as the currency pair still cannot break through the 1.1615 level. Later in the day, the Manufacturing PMIs will be released, which might provide some clear direction for pairs.
The US dollar index reversed Monday’s decline and rose 0.22% in trading yesterday. The US dollar index was flat and rose 2 basis points in early trading today. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield is 1.55%.
EURUSD (4- Hour Chart)
EUR/USD edged higher on Wednesday, ending the slide that started yesterday. The pair was trading higher in the early Asian session, but bears started to take over during the European session. The EUR/USD pair is currently rebounding back toward the 1.158 area, paring most of its intraday loss. The pair has stayed in positive territory amid the weaker US dollar across the board, despite the US ADP report showing that the US economy added 571K jobs in October. This report will influence expectations from Friday’s official Nonfarm Payrolls. On top of that, investors are waiting for ECB’s action, with expectations of a probable lift-off sooner than anticipated.
From a technical standpoint, the RSI indicator reads 46 as of writing, suggesting tepid bear movement ahead. The MACD has also fallen below the signal line, which means the pair is likely to experience downward momentum. If we take a look at the Bollinger Bands, the price fell from the moving average after touching it, which also means that the bearish momentum is likely to persist. In conclusion, we think the market will be bearish as long as the 1.1613 resistance line holds.
Resistance: 1.1613, 1.1692, 1.1755
Support: 1.1535, 1.1425
AUDUSD (4- Hour Chart)
After plummeting to a two-week low yesterday, AUD/USD rebounded moderately in early trades on Wednesday, but failed to preserve its bullish traction and is now flitting around the 0.7425 area at the time of writing. A less hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia and upbeat Chinese macro data assisted AUD/USD to gain some traction earlier today. On top of that, the Fed is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision, as well as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at the press conference later during the American session. If they are hawkish, AUD/USD could decline further. AUD/USD was last seen trading at 0.7419, posting a 0.12% loss for the day.
From a technical standpoint, the RSI indicator is at 32 figures as of writing, suggesting that the pair is surrounded by heavy selling now. As for the MACD indicator, the negative histogram also indicates a possible downward trend for the pair. Looking at the Bollinger Bands, the price is sitting between the moving average and the lower band, therefore the pair is likely to experience downward momentum. In conclusion, we think the market will be bearish as the pair is now testing the 0.7421 support, and chances are high that it could break it, which will open the door for additional near-term losses.
Resistance: 0.7502, 0.7556
Support: 0.7421, 0.7379, 0.7324
XAUUSD (4- Hour Chart)
XAU/USD tumbled on Wednesday amid strong US job data and is sitting in negative territory for a second day. The pair dropped to a three-week low and is now flirting just under the 1764 level. The better-than-expected ADP report acted as a tailwind for the Greenback and weighed heavily on the XAU/USD pair. An upbeat ADP estimate usually increases the chance the NFP report is going to be strong, which may trigger a more hawkish Fed. Market focus has now shifted to the Fed announcement later in the session, as investors expect the Fed to announce its bond tapering plans.
For the technical aspect, the RSI indicator reads 28 as of writing, suggesting that the pair is in the oversold zone, investors should be aware of a trend reversal. The MACD has also fallen below the signal line, which indicates a bear market. As for the Bollinger Bands, the price is moving out of the bands so a strong trend continuation can be expected. In conclusion, we think the market will be bearish as the pair is trying to test the 1750.24 support.
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