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The precious metal, gold, rose the most in three months as the…

The precious metal, gold, rose the most in three months as the dollar declined after the US inflation report

20210812
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Market Focus

US markets were mixed after the inflation report was not as bad as feared. The Dow Jones jumped 220.3 points, a new record high. The S&P 500 edged higher to 444.70 while the Nasdaq 100 closed with 0.1% lower. The consumer prices jumped 5.4% in July; however, the core inflation, which excluded energy and food, rose by 0.3% last month, less than the expectation of 0.4%.

According to Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan, the central band should start tapering its monthly purchases of bonds in October. As the economy and employment become healthier, the fed should be comfortable pulling back on the stimulus.

US President Joe Biden has pledged to wean off the fossil fuels and has called been more urgent. At the same time, Joe Biden’s administration has called Saudi Arabia and its allies to produce and unleash more crude oil onto global markets.

Main Pairs Movement

Crude oil future edged higher on Wednesday after Joe Biden’s administration mentioned that it would not call on US crude oil producers to increase oil output. In the meantime, the administration indicated that the output from OPEC+ is not enough, which might potentially be harming global recovery. As a result, the crude oil price closed at 69.25, up 1.41% on Wednesday.

The Aussie closed higher at 0.73745 amid the concerns of the US inflation report and the resurgence of new variant delta cases. However, the currency pair seems to consolidate in a tight range as the decline of iron- ore prices and the protracted NSW lockdown, according to National Australia Bank.

The precious metal, gold, rose the most in three months as the dollar declined after the US inflation report, easing fears that the Fed might soon pull back stimulus. Gold edged as much as 1.5%, as closed in $1751 on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (4-hour Chart)

Sterling caught some aggressive bids during the early New York session and shot to fresh daily tops, around the 1.3870-75 region in reaction to mixed U.S. inflation data. The headline CPI decelerate to 0.5% gains in July from the 0.9% increase recorded in the previous month. Additionally, core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3% MoM against 0.4% expected and June’s 0.9%. This, along with Fed president comments, weighed on the dollar. For the technical aspect, the RSI indicator rebounds to 51 figures, suggesting neutral momentum. For the moving average side, 15 long SMA indicators turn static movement and 60 long SMA seems slightly downward.

In light of the aforementioned, we still expect this pair will continue slightly to move to the sideway. If the price falls ahead, the first immediate support level will eyes on 1.385 level in short term and 1.38 level follow. If the price could go over the last highs spot which is around 1.395, it will be heading to over 1.4 level.

Resistance: 1.3896, 1.395, 1.4

Support: 1.38, 1.3745

EURUSD (4- Hour Chart)

EUR/USD pair recovered from a fresh low at 1.1705, yet the recovery stalled around the 1.175 thresholds, maintaining the tepid tone at 1.17368 as of writing. On Thursday, June industrial production data will be featured in the European economic docket. Later in the day, the weekly initial jobless claims and producer price index data from the U.S. will be looked upon for fresh impetus. From the technical perspective, the RSI indicator recovered from over sought territory and printed 44 figures, suggesting slightly bearish momentum. For the moving average side, 15 and 60 long SMA indicators are both heading to the negative side.

As mention previously, we expected if the price drop below 1.1755, market momentum would drag it to lower lows that eyes on 1.17. In the day market, we see euro fiber was blocked by critical upper resistance at 1.1755 then turn its head back down slightly. All in all, we expect 1.17 will be the final support level forbid buyers. If breakthrough the 1.17 level, then price will ahead to lower stage.

Resistance: 1.1755, 1.18, 1.185

Support: 1.17

XAUUSD (4- Hour Chart)

Gold clings to strong recovery gains on Wednesday as renewed dollar weakness helped it gain traction in the American session, after released CPI data. As of writing, gold was up 1.4% on the day at $1753. The U.S. dollar index is currently down 0.2% daily at 92.88. At the same time, benchmark 10 years U.S. Treasury bond yields are down 2%. For the technical side, the RSI indicator record 48.5 figures as of writing, suggesting slightly bearish movement but lack of direction. For moving average perspective, 15 long SMA indicator toward it slope to upside momentum and 60 long SMA indicator shows south way momentum.

In light of price action, we see the market rebound from rock bottom days ago to the current stage as market revival from overly sell-side sentiment. If momentum continues toward to downside, the first critical will be in 1730. On up way, we expect 1751 will be strong resistance.

Resistance: 1751.5, 1792, 1830

Support: 1730, 1700, 1682

20210812
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The Senate passed a $550 billion infrastructure plan that would represent the…

The Senate passed a $550 billion infrastructure plan that would represent the biggest burst of spending on U.S. public works in decades

20210811
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Market Focus

Slumping technology stocks stood in contrast to a broader gain in U.S. equities, exposing the lingering concerns about the ability of the economy to weather less stimulus and rising Covid outbreaks. While the S&P 500 and Dow Jones climbed to another all-time high, the tech-heavy Nasdaq declined along with Amazon.com Inc. Micron Technology Inc. led a decline in chip stocks, which slid for a fourth session. Energy shares rallied with oil. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index climbed for the seventh day.

The Senate passed a $550 billion infrastructure plan that would represent the biggest burst of spending on U.S. public works in decades, sending the legislation to the House where its fate is in the hands of the fractious Democratic caucus.

The bipartisan 69-30 vote Tuesday marked a significant victory for President Joe Biden’s economic agenda. It was a breakthrough that has eluded Congress and presidents for years, despite both parties calling infrastructure a priority and an issue ripe for compromise. Nineteen Republicans, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, joined with all 50 senators who caucus with Democrats to support the bill.

However, the bill still faces hurdles in the House, which is scheduled to be on break until Sept. 20. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, under pressure from progressives who want their priorities addressed, has said she will not allow a vote on the bipartisan package until the Senate has passed the broader economic plan. Moderates, meanwhile, are clamoring for the House to take up the bill sooner than that.

Main Pairs Movement

The greenback surged against European and safe-haven rivals but edged marginally lower against commodity-linked currencies, which were underpinned by the solid performance of crude oil and energy stocks.

The euro pair fell for a seventh consecutive day, heading toward the yearly low at around 1.1700. Cable settled around 1.3840, while Aussie added some 20 pips, and Lonnie hovered within the 1.2520 price zone. NZD/USD has been back to the 0.7000 level on Tuesday. USD/JPY extended its advance and trades at its highest in almost a month around 110.60.

Gold remained depressed, ending the day at $1,730 a troy ounce. Crude oil prices recovered some ground, with WTI ending the day at $68.50 a barrel, and Brent at $70.85. US Treasury Bond Yields continues their rising streak, with the 10-year yield closing the day at 1.3560.

Cryptocurrencies seesawed around the familiar price level amid the ongoing infrastructure bill negotiation which could impose tax requirements on digital assets. Though both Bitcoin and Ethereum ended the day red against the US dollar, their losses were within 2%.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (4-hour Chart)

Pound trade near a daily low of 1.3827 with mounting pressure amid persistent dollar’s strength after spending most of the day hovering around the 1.385 level. The pair has declined with consecutive 4 days. At the same time, the dollar remaining in the top spot on the hawkish Fed and anticipation of tapering. On the other hand, net GBP position perspective, last week net shorts dropped sharply in a follow-through from month end squaring. For the technical aspect, the RSI indicator printed 41 figures, suggesting a bearish momentum ahead. For moving average side, 15 long SMA indicator remaining downside movement and 60 long SMA seems to change its upward movement to the sideway.

In light of the aforementioned, we still expect this pair will continue to slightly move to sideway. If the price falls ahead, the first immediate support level will eyes on the 1.385 level in short term and the 1.38 level follow. However, the imminent U.S. CPI data might give dollar rival currencies a whipsaw. If the price could go over the last highs spot which is around 1.395, it will heading to over 1.4 level.

Resistance: 1.3896, 1.395, 1.4

Support: 1.38, 1.3745

EURUSD (4- Hour Chart)

EUR/USD pair is stocking 1.172 around as solid greenback demand persists while the shared currency gives up to tepid German data. Investors welcome U.S. news on infrastructure investment, eyes on U.S. inflation data. The pair seems to have gone into a consolidation phase and was last seen losing 0.14% in the daily market at 1.17190 as of writing. From the technical perspective, the RSI indicator still immerses in over sought territory, suggesting overly including on bearish momentum. For moving the average side, 15 long SMA indicator retaining downward slope and 60 long SMA completely head their way to the negative side.

As mention previously, we expected if the price drop below 1.1755, market momentum would drag it to lower lows than eyes on 1.17. Therefore, we forecast 1.17 will be the last support level, especially forbid buyers. In contrast, if the price could stand above 1.1755, the price will choppy between 1.1755 and 1.18.

Resistance: 1.1755, 1.18, 1.185

Support: 1.17

USDJPY (4- Hour Chart)

The Japan yen advanced to an almost one-month high of 11.058, trading nearby as the day comes to an end. The greenback retained its strength while the New York session, the latter fueled by news indicating a fresh financial injection in the U.S., coming from the government. At the same time, 10 years U.S. Treasuries yields have rallied to 1.35%, printed the record high in nearly two-week, that just gain 20% advanced from the last bottom. For the technical side, the RSI indicator record 71.6 figures as of writing, suggesting over-bought sentiment for the yen market. From a moving average perspective, both 15 and 60 long SMAs indicators are retaining downwind movement.

For the price action, the strong resistance has been built by the last couple of high points which is around the neckline of the bottom pattern at 110.66. Meanwhile, a relatively strong indicator also shows the overly sentiment that might forestall the bid side momentum or fuel the take profit action. In contrast, we expect 110.11 will be the first support level yet is short of the price cluster, and 109.7 following.

Resistance: 110.665

Support: 110.11, 109.7, 109.36

20210811
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The US markets were mixed on Monday as investors were concerned about…

The US markets were mixed on Monday as investors were concerned about the potential stimulus withdrawal and a resurgence of the delta virus variant

20210810
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Market Focus

The US markets were mixed on Monday as investors were concerned about the potential stimulus withdrawal and a resurgence of the delta virus variant. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 106.66 points. The S&P 500 was down 0.1% and the Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.16%. The market tone was flat as investors mulled comments from the Fed’s tapering asset purchases and the US jobs report was better than expectations.

Gold slumped as much as 4.4% during the early trading hours of the Asian session, but gradually recover later Monday. The major sudden sell-off was a prototypical shake by last Friday’s better-than-expected jobs report, which led the market to fear that the Fed might be being one step closer to reducing asset purchases and to accelerating the pace of raising the interest rates.

The president of the Fed of Boston added more comments on monetary policy. The Fed’s Eric Rosengren mentioned, there is a growing number of people, outside and inside of the Fed agreeing on the Fed who should start dialing back its extraordinary aid because the economy is coming back strongly. In addition to Rosengren’s comment, the central bank should announce in September that it will start reducing its $120 billion by this fall.

Main Pairs Movement

The Aussies bear moving in on critical support, declining 0.32% on Monday. The bearish move was mostly driven by a strong US dollar as the tapering talk continued to be brought up the table. The US 10- year Treasury yields climbed 1.32%, which underpinned the demand for the US dollar.

The EURUSD currency pair dropped to a multi-month low, closing at 1.1736, and the GBPUSD currency pair declined 0.13% on Monday. The pairs continued to be under pressure as the US dollar held onto gains across the board.

Crude oil price edged lower as much as 4%, closing at 66.48 as the demand might be lower since Return- to- Office might delay.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (4-hour Chart)

Sterling is trading a touch lower on the day, down 0.15% at the time of writing after sliding from a high of 1.3894 to 1.384. The markets are in consolidation and are still digesting Friday’s jobs report, which showed that jobs were added and it was the largest gains in NFP since August 2020. The dollar is better bid on the back of the data, taking on the bears at fresh daily highs. For the technical aspect, the RSI indicator printed 39 figures nearly market close, suggesting a bearish momentum ahead. For the moving average side, 15 long SMA indicators have death cross with 60 long SMA indicators while 60 long remaining slightly upside movement.

All in all, we believe this pair still lacking a direction as it miring in a tiny horizontal channel which is choppy for nearly a week. If the price falls ahead, the first immediately support level is 1.3843 as recently low on Jul 28 and successive fall then the market will eye on 1.385 level in short term and 1.38 level follow. On the up way, if the price could go over the last highs spot which is around 1.395, it will heading to over 1.4 level.

Resistance: 1.3896, 1.395, 1.4

Support: 1.3843, 1.38, 1.3745

EURUSD (4- Hour Chart)

The eurodollar turned downward and gained a fresh monthly low under 1.174 threshold that pressure as the greenback holds daily win across the board, losses 0.19% to 1.1736 as of writing. No key macroeconomic data was released on Monday. Market participants continue to digest last Friday’s NFP data. From the technical perspective, the RSI indicator has dropped to 27 figures as of writing, suggesting over sought sentiment for a short term. For moving the average side, 15 long SMA indicator retaining downward slope and 60 long SMA has turned it way to the negative side.

As mention previously, we expected if the price drop below 1.1755, market momentum would drag it to lower lows than eyes on 1.17. Therefore, we forecast 1.17 will be the last support level, especially forbid buyers. In contrast, if the price could stand above 1.1755, the price will choppy between 1.1755 and 1.18.

Resistance: 1.1755, 1.18, 1.185

Support: 1.17

XAUUSD (4- Hour Chart)

Gold is having a difficult time staging a convincing rebound following the steep drop witnessed in the early Asian session. With the latest data from the U.S. confirming the improving labor market conditions, the pair started to edge lower and was last seen losing 1.91 daily at $1729. At the same time, the greenback rallied along with the U.S. treasury yield shooting into 1.3% territory. Concerns that the Fed is about to taper are likely to remain heightened in the short term, denting investor appetite for the precious metal for which we have witnessed an exodus at the start of the week. For the technical side, the RSI indicator still immerses in over sought territory, suggesting extremely sell-side momentum fuel the market. From the moving average perspective, both 15 and 60 long SMAs indicators are retaining downside movement.

For the market sentiment, we see indicator shows the market is overly inclined to selling momentum which fueled by market data. On the other hand, extremely dynamic movement impact the perspective of moving average. Therefore, we expect the market will possibly rebound according to indicator suggestions. However, if the momentum continues toward to downside, the first critical will be in 1730. On up way, we expect 1751 will be strong resistance.

Resistance: 1751.5, 1792, 1830

Support: 1730, 1700, 1682

20210810
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