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The U.S. unemployment rate edged up to 6.1% and payrolls increased by…

The U.S. unemployment rate edged up to 6.1% and payrolls increased by just 266,000

20210510
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Market Focus

Stocks climbed to a record after surprisingly weak jobs data eased fears about higher inflation and a cutback in the stimulus. The dollar slumped, while Treasuries were little changed.

All major groups in the S&P 500 rose, with energy, real-estate, and industrial shares leading the charge. Earlier in the day, technology-led equity gains as softer economic data drove investors into the perceived safety of pandemic darlings – mega-caps flush with cash and stay-at-home stocks. A gauge of giant growth companies such as Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. pared most of its advance.

The long-awaited employment data rattled markets, with payrolls up only 266,000 in April, trailing the projected 1 million surges. For several analysts, the figures may give a boost to President Joe Biden’s $6 trillion economic agenda and another reason for the Federal Reserve to keep its accommodative stance. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the report “underscores the long-haul climb back to recovery,” while retaining her expectation of a return to full employment next year.

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari told Bloomberg Television he has “zero sympathies” for critics on Wall Street, who slam the central bank’s aggressive support of the U.S. economy while millions of Americans remain out of work.

“We need to rebuild this labor market and put them back to work. Then there will be plenty of time to normalize monetary policy,” he said.

Main Pairs Movement

A gauge of the dollar slumped to a 10-week low after U.S. job growth missed all estimates and as stocks rose on easing inflation concerns. The euro advanced to the highest in more than two months amid short-covering.

Dollar Spot Index slid as much as 0.665%, the most since December after data showed the U.S. unemployment rate edged up to 6.1% and payrolls increased by just 266,000 after a downwardly revised 770,000 March increase, well short of projections. The dollar also came under pressure as the offshore yuan posts its biggest advance in four months.

The euro climbs as much as 0.8% to $1.2165 amid short-covering and after ECB governing council member, Martins Kazaks said that a June decision to slow down bond-buying is possible if the economy doesn’t deteriorate. EUR/USD implied are higher across the curve with 1-year climbing to as high as 6.4350, the highest level since March 24.

On the week, commodity currencies led gains against the dollar, as prices of raw materials continued to soar. GBP/USD gained as much as 0.8% to 1.4, falling just short of the 1.4009 level last seen on April 20. USD/JPY was down 0.4% to 108.71 after earlier sliding as much as 0.7% to 108.34, the lowest since April 27.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4 hour Chart)

Euro fiber extended its yesterday upward momentum to approached a 2-month high on 1.216 level after U.S. unveiled an extremely disappointed NFP data that miss 1 million job gain versus 266 K actually, trading at 1.2164 as of writing. For the technical aspect, the RSI indicator shows 76 figures, suggesting an over-bought sentiment at least for the short term. On average price view, 15-long SMA accelerating its ascending slope and 60-long SMA turned it slope to the teeny-tiny upside in day market.

We foresee the market it pretty optimistic for gain traction as it edged higher than the last peak. Meanwhile, the market seems to try toward to next psychological level at 1.22. Therefore, we expect the first immediately downside support level will be the peak of last time at 1.2151 and 1.2106 following.

Resistance: 1.22

Support: 1.207, 1.2105, 1.215

XAUUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Gold consecutive it bull movement once breached to 3 months peak at 1843 and had a correction for it gain traction aftermarket digest the poor US NFP data, trading at 1832. Meantime, U.S. 10 years Treasuries yield has fallen to 1.5% stage which is testing the neckline of the 2-month-long double top pattern. For the RSI side, the indicator shows 73 figures which show the market is experiencing a torrid sentiment. On the other hand, 15 and 60-long SMAs indicator are accelerating their upward slope.

At the current stage, it seems market pricing for bullish trade while gold market without any cap pressure. However, we verdict that soared up rapidly in short term market could motivate take profit momentum. Therefore, for bull favor, first, immediately downside support at 1812.8 and psychological level at 1800 will follow. On up way, we expect there has another take profit level on 1850.

Resistance: 1850

Support: 1812.8, 1800, 1760

USDCAD (4 Hour Chart)

Loonie had a fluctuating movement in the day market and toward another day to day low level, trading at 1.2137 as of writing, while market reacted mix of upsetting US job data and Canada’s unemployment rate also miss the 7.8% expectation that figure show 8.1% of actual. Meantime, WTI crude turns negative territory to the positive area after the U.S. session, and copper was edging up to a record-setting level. For the RSI side, the indicator shows 22 figures which shows the market is on an over-bought sentiment recently. For the moving average side, 15 and 60-long SMAs indicators are remaining in descending movement.

Overall, we foresee the market will continue its downside movement as bearish momentum is still in favor of traction. On the slid way, we expect to sell position will incent strong take profit on the psychological level at 1.21.

Resistance: 1.2264, 1.238, 1.2491

Support: 1.21

20210510
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China’s shares traded in New York briefly extended losses after the Biden…

China’s shares traded in New York briefly extended losses after the Biden administration is likely to preserve limits on U.S. investments in certain companies from the Asian nation

20210507
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Market Focus

Stocks climbed as data showing the world’s largest economy is strengthening overshadowed inflation worries, with investors awaiting Friday’s jobs report. The dollar retreated.

The S&P 500 closed near session highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to a record. China’s shares traded in New York briefly extended losses after Bloomberg News reported the Biden administration is likely to preserve limits on U.S. investments in certain companies from the Asian nation. In late trading, Beyond Meat Inc. slumped as the maker of plant-based protein products reported disappointing sales, and Peloton Interactive Inc. whipsawed as investors assessed its results.

Applications for U.S. state unemployment insurance fell last week to a fresh pandemic low as labor-market conditions continued to improve and the economy reopened more broadly. Separate data highlighted a rebound in productivity in the first quarter as the pace of output exceeded a pickup in hours worked. Economists predict the upcoming employment report will show the U.S. added about 1 million jobs in April.

Main Pairs Movement

The greenback weakened versus most Group-of-10 currency peers as U.S. 10-year yields remained steady ahead of data Friday forecast to show employment growth in America soared. The Canadian dollar climbed to the highest since 2017 as metals helped to boost an index of commodities to a fresh 2015 high. o Ten-year U.S. yields little changed at ~1.56%; NFP forecast for a gain of 1m.

USD/CAD -0.7% to 1.2184; touched 1.2181, lowest since Sep. 18, 2017; higher gold, silver helped to buoy loonie. Options in loonie remain active amid call interest. Overnight volatility in USD/CAD hit ~9.77%, highest since early January on a closing basis, ahead of the nation’s employment data, also scheduled for Friday, which is expected to show a loss of about 150k jobs in the month.

GBP/USD down 0.1% to 1.3891; BOE slowed its emergency bond-buying and signaled it’s on course to end that crisis support later this year. EUR/USD +0.5% to 1.2060; poised for the first gain in three sessions; shared currency supported by cross-related buying and interest in short-dated euro calls.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4 hour Chart)

Euro fiber retreated yesterday gloomy amid fueled by macroeconomic data from the E.U and the U.S. which boosted risk sentiment, helped euro dollar to advance, currently trading at 1.206 that wipe out yesterday fail. For further eco-data driven, the euro holding a bull expectation to an extension ahead of NFP. For the technical aspect, the RSI indicator shows 58 figures, suggesting a bullish momentum at least for the short term. On average price view, 15-long SMA turned ascending slope and 60-long SMA turned it slope to the teeny-tiny upside in day market.

We foresee the market will continue whipsaw or choppy in a range between first support and resistance or even continue day gain traction further. On up way, if position breakthrough 1.207 level, we eye on next couple resistance of upside. Of course, the first immediately is on 1.199-1.2 around and 1.192 following.

Resistance: 1.207, 1.2105, 1.215

Support: 1.199, 1.19

XAUUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Gold rallied to a 2-month-long peak as seems bearish momentum had a correction to test the short position. Gold once ramp of to daily high at 1816 level then slightly resume position to nearly market close, trading at 1814.7. For the RSI side, the indicator shows 72.5 figures which suggest over-bought sentiment base on a 4-hour interval. On the other hand, 15 and 60-long SMAs indicator are shifting their sluggish movement to ascending momentum.

At the current stage, it seems market pricing for bullish trade while gold market without any cap pressure. However, we verdict that soared up rapidly in short term market could motivate take profit momentum. Therefore, for bull favor, first, immediately downside support at 1812.8 and psychological level at 1800 will follow.

Support: 1812.8, 1800, 1760

USDCAD (4 Hour Chart)

Loonie gains a downside victory intraday as it successively extended bearish momentum recently amid spectacular economic data trigger the risk-on mode to commodities-linked currencies, trading at 1.2158 which record-setting low in nearly 3 years. Meanwhile, an exceptional decrease in U.S. oil inventories didn’t pump up the price which holding beneath 65 levels where comfort at 64.88 as of writing. However, pan-industrial metal is constantly in gain traction. For the RSI side, the indicator shows 16 figures which represent the market is on an over-bought sentiment.

Overall, we foresee the market will continue its downside movement as bearish momentum is still in favor of traction. On the slid way, we expect to sell position will incent strong take profit on the psychological level at 1.21.

Resistance: 1.2264, 1.238, 1.2491

Support: 1.21

20210507
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U.S. will support a proposal to waive intellectual-property protections for Covid-19 shots

U.S. will support a proposal to waive intellectual-property protections for Covid-19 shots

20210506
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Market Focus

Stocks almost wiped out their gains as technology shares turned lower, offsetting optimism over solid corporate earnings and economic reports. Treasuries climbed.

The S&P 500 notched an advance of less than 0.1% while the Nasdaq 100 ended in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to a fresh record. Moderna and Johnson & Johnson retreated, while Pfizer finished little changed on news the U.S. will support a proposal to waive intellectual-property protections for Covid-19 shots. Peloton tumbled after recalling its treadmill products. Copper and lumber rallied, adding to inflation worries.

As the world’s largest economy rebounds, an intense debate has emerged over whether actual price pressures are set to materialize. The five-year breakeven rate — a proxy for the annual inflation rate bond traders expects over the span — jumped to the highest since 2008. Despite the increase in commodity prices and supply shortages, several Fed officials said Wednesday that inflation is unlikely to get out of control.

Main Pairs Movement

New Zealand and Australian dollars outperformed Group-of-10 currency peers Wednesday as copper surged and a key gauge of commodities rose to the highest since 2015. The dollar was steady, while volatility in the pound hit the highest since March ahead of a Bank of England policy decision due Thursday.

Among G-10 peers, Kiwi led with gains of 0.9%; the Aussie and loonie rounded out the top three, with the latter jumping to the highest since 2018 before paring gains as oil dropped; the Norwegian krone lagged all. Rising commodities are contributing to more bullish sentiment on inflation, with the 5-year breakeven rate hitting the highest since 2008.

GBP/USD rises 0.2% to 1.3908; pared gains after rising as much as 0.3%. One-week volatility in the pound rose to 8.32 vols, highest since late March; Scottish independence vote also fueling higher vols. Elsewhere, gold was struggling in the day and set it below 1790 level, spiral in an accommodative choppy scope between 1764.5 to 1795.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4 hour Chart)

Eurodollar remains on lost traction to close the consecutive 2 days in negative, trading at 1.2003 around. The pair once dropped to its lowest level in more than two weeks at 1.1986 in the European session and seems to found support at 1.19~1.2 level. All in all, recently, the U.S. market continues to drive euro fiber movements while Europe lack of significant news catalyst.

For the technical aspect, the RSI indicator shows 40 figures, suggesting a bearish momentum at least for the short term. On average price view, 15-long SMA is maintaining a negative slope and 60-long SMA turned its slope to teeny-tiny downside intraday market.

We foresee the market will continue whipsaw or choppy in a range between first support and resistance as it tamps down from 1.213 which was a top pattern recently. On the slid side, we see 1.199 to 1.2 has a strong support level which forms by multi-month-long price cluster area were also a neckline for last bottom pattern. If the market extends its downside traction, the next support will eye on 1.19-1.192 around.

Resistance: 1.2105, 1.213, 1.22

Support: 1.199, 1.19

USDJPY (4 Hour Chart)

Japan yen fell toward to psychological level at the 109 stage after it fails to keep upward momentum above 109.45 that left the door open to a retreat when materialized amid a decline across the board of the U.S. dollar. During the American session, it printed a fresh daily low at 109.13. As of writing, it trading at 109.198. For the RSI side, the indicator shows 52 figures which suggest neutral market sentiment. On the other hands, 15 and 60-long SMAs indicator are retaining it ascending movement notwithstanding 15-long one seems to lose accelerating traction.

We expect 109 to still be a powerful support level as the yen has successfully defended in recent days. If the yen could consecutive stand above the first support level, we believe it could be deemed as a bull movement ahead. For upward favor, 109 level is immediately needed to defend nature and 108.37 followings. It’s worth noting that there has a downside resistance from above the current stage as the yellow line. If the yen could breakthrough the downside resistance, we see bullish momentum is upcoming.

Resistance: 110.412

Support: 109, 108.37, 107.936

USDCAD (4 Hour Chart)

Loonie resumed its downward traction and dropped below 1.2265 level which once slipped to a three-year-low at 1.225 level, trading at 1.22679 as of writing. The slide in loonie took place while broad-based U.S. dollar decline, amid risk appetite and lower U.S. yields following mixed U.S. data. For the RSI side, the indicator shows 34 figures which suggest a bearish momentum ahead for the short term. On averaging price perspective, 15-long SMA indicator turns it slope to downward movement while 60-long SMA indicator remaining it descending slope.

Sum up above, we expect the market will surround in consolidation between 1.2269 to 1.238 as the market seems misdirection with blurred price momentum. Albeit, if the market doesn’t stand above the first resistance at 1.238 level, we believe it remains bearish momentum for the long term.

Resistance: 1.238, 1.246, 1.2491

Support: 1.225

20210506
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