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The Bloomberg Commodity Index fell for a second day as oil, copper,…

The Bloomberg Commodity Index fell for a second day as oil, copper, soybeans, and almost every other futures contract linked to industrial and agricultural staples retreated

20210520
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Market Focus

U.S. stocks closed mixed and Treasury yields rose as minutes showed Federal Reserve officials were cautiously optimistic about the U.S. recovery at their April meeting, with some signaling they’d be open “at some point” to discussing scaling back the central bank’s massive bond purchases.

The S&P 500 fell for the third day, and 10-year Treasury yields jumped to session highs following the release. Energy and raw-material stocks fell the most as commodities prices tumbled amid mounting concern about inflation and potential curbs on monetary stimulus. The Nasdaq 100 notched a small advance, boosted by late-day gains in tech stocks including Facebook Inc. and Alphabet Inc.

At its worst moment, Bitcoin dropped about 30% to within a whisker of $30,000. It pared that decline to about 8% by 4 p.m. New York time. Other cryptocurrencies held double-digit percentage losses, pressured in part by a Tuesday statement from the People’s Bank of China reiterating that digital tokens can’t be used as a form of payment.

Stocks have lost steam in recent sessions, with pricier sectors such as technology tumbling on worries about inflation and a Covid-19 resurgence in some countries. While policymakers have signaled, they intend to maintain an accommodative stance for some time to come, traders will parse the Fed’s minutes for clues about the outlook. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which touched a nine-year high last week, fell for a second day as oil, copper, soybeans, and almost every other futures contract linked to industrial and agricultural staples retreated.

Main Pairs Movement

A gauge of the dollar’s strength halted a four-day loss as traders awaited minutes of the Federal Reserve’s April meeting for clues on its next policy move.

The euro climbed to the highest since January and funds already long the currency left buy stops above the Feb. 25 high of 1.2243 to add to their positions, traders said. USD/JPY bounced off residual buy orders carried over from the New York session above 108.80, according to other traders.

The Norwegian krone and the euro gained the most among Group-of-10 currencies while the New Zealand dollar fell. USD/NOK dropped 0.2% to 8.2118; NZD/USD retreated 0.3% to 0.7228.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4 hour Chart)

Euro fiber sharply slipped with the initial market reaction to FOMC Minute, fell from day high at 1.2245 level to nearly day lowest spot, trading at 1.2173 as of writing. FOMC’s April meeting showed some policymakers are concerned about rising inflation in the near term, provide a boost to the greenback. For the technical aspect, the RSI indicator retreat from the overbought territory that shows 51 figures, which suggests a neutral momentum for a short run. On average price view, 15-long SMA indicator is an ongoing ascending trend in day market after it euro aimed to higher stack and 60-long SMA retained upside slope.

At the moment, we expect the market will remain bull movement further if euro fiber could hold above 1.2151 level. Meanwhile, it also focuses on ECB President Lagarde speaking tomorrow that could give the market a direction and policymaker favor for upcoming euro movement. Moreover, the euro needs to defend the 50 levels of RSI indicator to ensure that the market remains long-side momentum.

Resistance: 1.22

Support: 1.2151, 1.2106, 1.207

GBPUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Sterling retreated from perch to fresh lows after Fed’s hawkish statement in FOMC minute while down nearly .47% in the day and traveled today low bound, trading at 1.4116 as of writing. Some officials saw taper talk starting at upcoming meetings and schedules but note that the economy still has a gap from their goals. For the RSI side, the indicator shows 45 figures after plummet, suggesting a slightly bear market ahead. On the other hand, 15-long SMA indicators start to turn flat move after overwhelming and 60-long SMA indicators remaining an ascending movement.

As price action demonstrates, it seems to fail to defend the 1.42 level as the dollar’s strong boost up, moreover, sterling sentiment has slipped to the bearish side. Therefore, we need to see the first support level could be defended. If market momentum could sharing up the first support level, we expect it could roam between the first resistance and support level. If the market consecutive fell, we expect the market would test the psychological support level at 1.4.

Resistance: 1.42

Support: 1.3959, 1.4, 1.4108

XAUUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Gold traveled with sightly change in the day market after dollar index jumped higher over 90 which aimed to FOMC hawkish meeting result that scared market, while U.S. 10 years Treasuries yield flare-up to nearly months high. On the other hand, the cryptocurrency market went extremely volatile due to regulatory worry which leads to market transfer funds to the gold market with the risk-off flow. For the moving average side, the 15-long SMA indicator retained its slope to an upside trend, and the 60-long SMAs indicator retaining its north side momentum. For the RSI side, the indicator shows 59 figures after it touches once overbought territory, suggesting a slightly bull market move at the current stage.

Overall, we see gold seems steady above downside trend after choppy move in the day market. For a long perspective, we still believe the downside trend will be a pivotal support level. Furthermore, we hope the 1850 level could firmly defend if any upwind move.

Resistance: 1900

Support: 1850, 1812.88, 1800, 1763.837

20210520
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The Bloomberg Commodity Index fell for a second day as oil, copper,…

The Bloomberg Commodity Index fell for a second day as oil, copper, soybeans, and almost every other futures contract linked to industrial and agricultural staples retreated

20210520
Share

Market Focus

U.S. stocks closed mixed and Treasury yields rose as minutes showed Federal Reserve officials were cautiously optimistic about the U.S. recovery at their April meeting, with some signaling they’d be open “at some point” to discussing scaling back the central bank’s massive bond purchases.

The S&P 500 fell for the third day, and 10-year Treasury yields jumped to session highs following the release. Energy and raw-material stocks fell the most as commodities prices tumbled amid mounting concern about inflation and potential curbs on monetary stimulus. The Nasdaq 100 notched a small advance, boosted by late-day gains in tech stocks including Facebook Inc. and Alphabet Inc.

At its worst moment, Bitcoin dropped about 30% to within a whisker of $30,000. It pared that decline to about 8% by 4 p.m. New York time. Other cryptocurrencies held double-digit percentage losses, pressured in part by a Tuesday statement from the People’s Bank of China reiterating that digital tokens can’t be used as a form of payment.

Stocks have lost steam in recent sessions, with pricier sectors such as technology tumbling on worries about inflation and a Covid-19 resurgence in some countries. While policymakers have signaled, they intend to maintain an accommodative stance for some time to come, traders will parse the Fed’s minutes for clues about the outlook. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which touched a nine-year high last week, fell for a second day as oil, copper, soybeans, and almost every other futures contract linked to industrial and agricultural staples retreated.

Main Pairs Movement

A gauge of the dollar’s strength halted a four-day loss as traders awaited minutes of the Federal Reserve’s April meeting for clues on its next policy move.

The euro climbed to the highest since January and funds already long the currency left buy stops above the Feb. 25 high of 1.2243 to add to their positions, traders said. USD/JPY bounced off residual buy orders carried over from the New York session above 108.80, according to other traders.

The Norwegian krone and the euro gained the most among Group-of-10 currencies while the New Zealand dollar fell. USD/NOK dropped 0.2% to 8.2118; NZD/USD retreated 0.3% to 0.7228.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4 hour Chart)

Euro fiber sharply slipped with the initial market reaction to FOMC Minute, fell from day high at 1.2245 level to nearly day lowest spot, trading at 1.2173 as of writing. FOMC’s April meeting showed some policymakers are concerned about rising inflation in the near term, provide a boost to the greenback. For the technical aspect, the RSI indicator retreat from the overbought territory that shows 51 figures, which suggests a neutral momentum for a short run. On average price view, 15-long SMA indicator is an ongoing ascending trend in day market after it euro aimed to higher stack and 60-long SMA retained upside slope.

At the moment, we expect the market will remain bull movement further if euro fiber could hold above 1.2151 level. Meanwhile, it also focuses on ECB President Lagarde speaking tomorrow that could give the market a direction and policymaker favor for upcoming euro movement. Moreover, the euro needs to defend the 50 levels of RSI indicator to ensure that the market remains long-side momentum.

Resistance: 1.22

Support: 1.2151, 1.2106, 1.207

GBPUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Sterling retreated from perch to fresh lows after Fed’s hawkish statement in FOMC minute while down nearly .47% in the day and traveled today low bound, trading at 1.4116 as of writing. Some officials saw taper talk starting at upcoming meetings and schedules but note that the economy still has a gap from their goals. For the RSI side, the indicator shows 45 figures after plummet, suggesting a slightly bear market ahead. On the other hand, 15-long SMA indicators start to turn flat move after overwhelming and 60-long SMA indicators remaining an ascending movement.

As price action demonstrates, it seems to fail to defend the 1.42 level as the dollar’s strong boost up, moreover, sterling sentiment has slipped to the bearish side. Therefore, we need to see the first support level could be defended. If market momentum could sharing up the first support level, we expect it could roam between the first resistance and support level. If the market consecutive fell, we expect the market would test the psychological support level at 1.4.

Resistance: 1.42

Support: 1.3959, 1.4, 1.4108

XAUUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Gold traveled with sightly change in the day market after dollar index jumped higher over 90 which aimed to FOMC hawkish meeting result that scared market, while U.S. 10 years Treasuries yield flare-up to nearly months high. On the other hand, the cryptocurrency market went extremely volatile due to regulatory worry which leads to market transfer funds to the gold market with the risk-off flow. For the moving average side, the 15-long SMA indicator retained its slope to an upside trend, and the 60-long SMAs indicator retaining its north side momentum. For the RSI side, the indicator shows 59 figures after it touches once overbought territory, suggesting a slightly bull market move at the current stage.

Overall, we see gold seems steady above downside trend after choppy move in the day market. For a long perspective, we still believe the downside trend will be a pivotal support level. Furthermore, we hope the 1850 level could firmly defend if any upwind move.

Resistance: 1900

Support: 1850, 1812.88, 1800, 1763.837

20210520
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Bitcoin fell to the lowest since February after the People’s Bank of…

Bitcoin fell to the lowest since February after the People’s Bank of China reiterated that the digital tokens cannot be used as a form of payment

20210519
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Market Focus

U.S. stocks declined for a second day with losses steepening in the final 15 minutes of trading as investors weighed the rush to reopen the economy against inflationary pressure from a rise in commodity prices.

All three of the main U.S. equity benchmarks closed lower after mega-cap technology stocks including Amazon.com Inc., Microsoft Corp., and Alphabet Inc. erased earlier gains. Nine of the main 11 S&P 500 industry groups declined, with energy stocks leading losses as oil prices dropped amid a report that significant progress has been made to revive the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal. AT&T Inc. plunged the most in the benchmark gauge after the company said it plans to spin off its media operations. Walmart Inc. rallied the most in six weeks after boosting its profit outlook.

Stocks have been volatile after touching a record in early May as investors assessed economic growth prospects against a Covid-19 resurgence in countries including India. Minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting, due Wednesday, may offer clues on inflation pressure and hints of a timeline for tapering stimulus. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said Monday that the weak U.S. jobs report showed the economy had not yet reached the threshold to warrant scaling back asset purchases. Inflation concerns intensified last week when the government reported the fastest increase in consumer prices since 2008 and commodities from iron ore to Brent crude rose to multiyear highs.

Main Pairs Movement

A gauge of the greenback’s strength declined to near its lowest level in four months as risk sentiment was buoyed by comments from a Federal Reserve official that played down the risk of policy tightening. New Zealand’s dollar outperformed the Group-of-10 currencies.

The kiwi was driven by corporate demand that lifted it past option-related offers near 72.25 U.S. cents, according to Asia-based FX traders. The Aussie and pound gained after buy stops were triggered, the traders said.

West Texas Intermediate crude extended declines after the BBC Persian news channel, citing Russian diplomat Mikhail Ulyanov, reported that a major announcement may be made on Wednesday regarding talks to broker an agreement between Iran and the U.S. and revive the 2015 nuclear deal. A return to the accord could allow for the removal of U.S. sanctions on Iran’s crude exports and bring more supply to the market.

Elsewhere, Bitcoin fell to the lowest since February after the People’s Bank of China reiterated that the digital tokens cannot be used as a form of payment. Coinbase Global Inc. fell after Monday’s drop below the reference price used in its April direct listing.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4 hour Chart)

Euro fiber soars up to a two-month high at 1.2225 level on Tuesday and set a flat move during the U.S. session, as of writing, the pair went up 0.6% in the day at 1.2225 and awaiting EU inflation data tomorrow. Euro vast gains amid greenback struggle to find the upside momentum while it free fall to 89.69 level which the lowest point since Feb. Moreover, the U.S. shares market went down that without safe-parking demand to the dollar, U.S. 10 years Treasuries yield slightly changed. For the technical aspect, the RSI indicator shows 72 figures, which suggests an overbought sentiment in the short term. On average price view, 15-long SMA indicator is an ongoing ascending trend in day market after it euro aimed to higher stack and 60-long SMA retained upside slope.

As price action at the current stage, we think the market is ongoing to track the bull side as it stands above 1.22 level. However, we need to see what the ECB will do after inflation data released.

Support: 1.22, 1.2151, 1.2106, 1.207

GBPUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Sterling retreated from 1.42 level after once advanced to multi-month highs at 1.422. Nevertheless, Sterling surged up to a higher stack that breakthrough, where we thought, is a critical level at 1.4155 in the short-run, trading at 1.419 with 0.4% gains in the day market. In the meantime, the Kingdom unveiled the ILO unemployment rate for the three months to March, which shrank to 4.8% beat 4.9% expected. For the RSI side, the indicator shows a 66.2 figure after it exceeded the bought area in the Asian session, suggesting a bullish momentum at the current stage. On the other hand, 15-long SMA indicators remaining the north side, and the 60-long SMA indicator remaining an ascending movement.

Overall, we expect sterling will test 1.42 level again that long-holder to see if strong enough for the bull momentum. Therefore, we see it first immediately support level would be 1.4 around for long-favor.

Resistance: 1.42

Support: 1.3959, 1.4, 1.4108

XAUUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Gold retreated from months perch level at 1875 level, it still extended the day’s victory to the higher stage amid risk-on mood while it remains balance above downside trend, trading at 1870 as of writing. Meanwhile, the greenback slipped to nearly year-long nadir after some Fed officials reiterated that they will maintain the current ultra-eaing monetary policy regardless of the pickup inflation. For the moving average side, the 15-long SMA indicator retained its slope to an upside trend, and the 60-long SMAs indicator retaining its north side momentum. For the RSI side, the indicator shows 68 figures after it landing in the over-bought territory, suggesting a bull market move at the current stage.

As we mention yesterday, we still need to be patient to affirm whether it could stand firmly above the multi-month-long downside trend as the yellow line. Moreover, the market has bought in the expectation of substantial and widespread inflation but gold seems just creep up to sod far. Therefore, we still need the upside risk and further long-side momentum.

Resistance: 1900

Support: 1850, 1812.88, 1800, 1763.837

20210519
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